The Mortgage Acumen

The Grinch Who Stole Consumer Confidence

mycmps | 23 December, 2008 12:10

During the holiday season, many find comfort in the traditions that have been passed on from generation to generation. I personally enjoy the gathering of family to enjoy the new found awareness of children to the whole spectacle we call Christmas. From the "I love Santa" chants to the "I am scared of the Grinch" whimpers, the innocence of children bring a purity to the entire decision making process of buying gifts, wrapping presents, singing, etc...

This is a sharp contrast to the recessionary woes that has overwhelmed the public.  The dynamics of the U.S. and global economy are changing as quick as the weather. With today's uncertain landscape for housing, the financial markets, future economic growth and employment many have been paralyzed to make changes in their lives.

The continuous blitz in the media of negative headlines has essentially perpetuated the downward spiraling effect as households across America have begun to retrench in the safety of non-decisions.

This is clearly evident for consumers who are "On The Fence" for a mortgage transaction, whether it is for a home purchase or a refinance.

No matter the metric, either 1% reduction or $100/mth savings, consumers have become reluctant to change.

For example, we had a client during the month of August that could have saved nearly $1500 per month through a cash-out refinance that would have restructured their entire debt obligations into a 30 year fixed mortgage. At that time their mortgage rate would have been 7%. They were excited about all the positive things they could do with this new found savings. Unfortunately, they were not committed to move forward.

As with all of our clients, we continued to monitor their options. Mortgage rates did trend downward eventually once Bernanke and the FED made a formal announcement that they were committed to buy agency mortgage-backed assets.

We went back to the consumer earlier this month to inform them that rates had dropped close to 5.25%, which would have saved them an additional $200/mth for a total monthly savings of $1700. Believe it or not, they apologized and stated that they were scared to move forward and commit to a refinance transaction at this time.

At this point, you may be wondering about the sanity of this couple. I will only state that one is a lawyer and one is a hospital administrator. Even educated consumers have succumbed to recessionary fears and are timid to move forward.

Since all eyes are on stabilizing the housing market, what will it take to get consumers to commit to action?

If you agree with the National Association of Realtors and the National Association of Home Builders, mortgage rates have to be near 4.5%. If you follow the entertaining guidance of Mad Money's Jim Cramer, mortgage rates have to be as low as 3.5%.

It appears that everyone is trying to chase and capture the ever allusive white elephant. Speculation on where mortgage rates should be has only intensified the hesitant nature of today's consumers.

The Grinch has stolen something even more important this year, he has stolen the confidence of consumers and broken their will to endure this economic downturn.

What will you do to stop the Grinch?